Geopolitical forecasts are of the same order as good New Year’s resolutions: better not to check what we said twelve months before… 2022 has confused all the forecasts, in almost all areas, and it would be in vain formulate some for the coming year. On the other hand, it may be useful to draw some lessons from the unforeseen events of 2022, to better prepare for 2023.
First lesson: autocrats are not infallible. We ended up believing it, with a China that managed to marry totalitarianism and economic growth; a Russia whose rogue behavior, in Syria or in Africa, seemed to work for him; or even a Donald Trump, who we will gladly place in this category, and who seemed unbreakable despite a record number of saucepans.
2022 has not been a good year for them, especially for Vladimir Pouti
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